Bunker Price Forecasting

Our team places high value on research that effectively supports decisions. As an example our team monitors the development of fuel oil (bunker) prices in the key markets of Houston, Singapore, Fujairah and Rotterdam, and develops own forecasting tools of future prices.

Our latest internal analysis on bunker prices reveals interesting statistical properties and explains also the challenges. For example, the analysis yields that the average price per ton of High-Sulfur (HS) 380cSt in Houston was circa USD400±160/ton in the last 10 years (see table below). Therefore, it is wise to consider these values when designing ‘collars’ and ‘stress tests’ in our analyses and investment plans.

 Year  Count Mean Min  Max St.Dev    
2015 52 272.08 120 352.5 60.8992 
2016 52 209.29 100 307.5 53.7311 
2017 52 302.39 255 370 28.5507 
2018 52 400.69 332.5 472.5 39.3598 
2019 52 382.43 297.5 465 42.6808 
2020 52 257.57 121 361.5 63.0306 
Ttl (2012-20)469 401.74 100 730.5 159.9048 

Table 1. Basic Statistics of HS 380 in Houston  – Example

The illustration of our analysis can also provide interesting insight. The empirical cumulative distribution (ECD) of the HS prices of Houston for this period, reveals also the root of most forecasting challenges; the distribution is bimodal, therefore it needs special handling and expertise. We have experts in our team who can work with these data and produce useful results.

In this graph we demonstrate the accuracy of our forecasting capabilities. Our methodologies are scientific and published in leading academic journals for further scrutiny and validation; the quality of the data determines the quality of our forecasting.

Soon we will be able to produce more forecasting input for our internal needs as well as for the needs of our clients.

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