Our team places high value on research that effectively supports decisions. As an example our team monitors the development of fuel oil (bunker) prices in the key markets of Houston, Singapore, Fujairah and Rotterdam, and develops own forecasting tools of future prices.
Our latest internal analysis on bunker prices reveals interesting statistical properties and explains also the challenges. For example, the analysis yields that the average price per ton of High-Sulfur (HS) 380cSt in Houston was circa USD400±160/ton in the last 10 years (see table below). Therefore, it is wise to consider these values when designing ‘collars’ and ‘stress tests’ in our analyses and investment plans.
Year | Count | Mean | Min | Max | St.Dev |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 52 | 272.08 | 120 | 352.5 | 60.8992 |
2016 | 52 | 209.29 | 100 | 307.5 | 53.7311 |
2017 | 52 | 302.39 | 255 | 370 | 28.5507 |
2018 | 52 | 400.69 | 332.5 | 472.5 | 39.3598 |
2019 | 52 | 382.43 | 297.5 | 465 | 42.6808 |
2015 | 52 | 257.57 | 121 | 361.5 | 63.0306 |
Ttl (2012-20) | 469 | 401.74 | 100 | 730.5 | 159.9048 |